A decade following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an highly divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in academia but scarcely any government figures or activists want to engage with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. Both composes two essays that strive for neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win here and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has possesses valuable insights to gain from the other's positions."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster should participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
