Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are waged: optimistic declarations are issued from various governments. Immense energy is allocated on managing particular approaches. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from Russian territory, a capacity provided through up-to-date information. From observation points, defense planes that had been dispatched to intercept incoming aerial threats roared overhead – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: multiple launches targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely supplied through allied countries. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly gives way to grim resignation: perhaps the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a automatic firearm opened up on a drone somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its objective.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: seven people killed, destruction and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a dependence that European nations are evidently unprepared to replace in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from US administration generated strong feelings, debate and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new proposal from American administration unfolds according to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, certainly, endure.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington operates on a principle well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government believes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does minimal to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the situation will not shift further in its advantage in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing lives and land but preventing a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its favour.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: personal goals to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not switch to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to kill the proposed articles of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new proposals based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
